The Original Profit-Taker
TM
- The Greatest Game on Earth
- or
- "Why should the billionaires have all the fun?"TM
- The ‘Game' in a nutshell
- Professor Smarba supplies ‘the team’.
The stock market supplies the action.
The experience empowers you.
- #1 'LIVE' Choice for May 2010
(First posted before market opening on Mon., May 10, 2010.
Based on closing prices of Fri., May 7, 2010.)
- Continental Airlines
5% of 2023
Gamers! What's our first orders?
In a Nutshell
________________________________________________________________________
2010 Orders Filled Profit (Loss)
________________________________________________________________________
May 10
Buy 25 bonds at $1182.40 each
Sell short 1250 common shares at $18.61.
(Based on our game investment of $15,000 plus an additional conservative 50% margin of
$15,000)
______________________________________________________________________________
May 13
242 shares sold short at $21.89
Locked in profit $793.76
______________________________________________________________________________
May 21
242 shares covered ('bought in') at $18.61
(Realized profit - $793.76)
______________________________________________________________________________
June 3
242 shares sold short at $21.89
Locked in profit $774.40
______________________________________________________________________________
June 16
242 shares sold short at $25.36
Locked in profit $793.76
______________________________________________________________________________
July 2
242 shares covered ("bought in") at $21.89
(Realized profit - $839.74)
______________________________________________________________________________
July 26
242 shares sold short at $25.36
Locked in profit $827.64
______________________________________________________________________________
August 24
242 shares covered at ("bought in') at $21,89
(Realized profit - $839.74)
______________________________________________________________________________
TOTAL ANNUALIZED PROFIT 100%
____________________________________________
THE PROFIT-TAKER GAME PLAN:
Continental Airlines
Common
Stock Price ($)
28.84 Long-term Goal (Uptrend)
25.36 Sub Goal 2 (Uptrend)
*21.89 Sub Goal 1 (Uptrend)
18.61 Initial Purchase Price
12.41 Sub Goal 1 (Downtrend)
6.21 Sub Goal 2 (Downtrend)
0 Long-term Goal (Downtrend)
*Underlined blue is price of last 'filled' trade.
Gamers! To verify current price, click here.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please Note Well:
In the beginning on May 10, 2010.
We bought 29 bonds. CALCULATION: $30,000 ($15,000 of which is margin) divided by
$1023.55 (price of a convertible bond) = 29 bonds (rounded off).
Total investment = $29560
We start our plan as a half-hedge. That is, we sell short half the shares represented by our
29 bonds which equals a total of 1450 shares sold short.
CALCULATION: 29 bonds x 50 shares per bond = 1450 shares.
So a half-hedge is ½ of 1450 or 725 shares sold short.
Always sell short 242 shares on each move to an upside sub goal.
That is, 725 shares sold short, divided by the 3 upside sub goals = 242.
Always cover ('buy in') 242 shares on each move to a downside goal. That is, 725 shares
sold short divided by the 3 downside sub goals = 242.
________________________________________________________________________
CONVERTIBLE BOND FACTS:
Continental Airlines 5% of 2023
CONVERTIBLE PRICE : 102.35% or $1023.55
NUMBER OF SHARES: 50 shares per bond
CONVERSION VALUE : 93.05% or $930.50
PREMIUM : 10%
TERM CHANGE: 0
MATURITY: June 15, 2023
EXCHANGE: Over-the-Counter
CURRENT YIELD : 4.88 %
ISSUE SIZE: $ 175 MILLION
INTEREST PAYMENT DATES: June 15 and December 15
CALL PRICE: No call price
INDUSTRY: Air Transportation
_______________________________________________________________________
UNDERLYING COMMON STOCK FACTS:
Continental Airlines
PRICE: $18.61
HI (52 WEEKS): $24.29
LO (52 WEEKS): $ 7.86
VOLATILITY (%) (52 WEEKS): 88%
HI (LAST 3 MONTHS): $23.77
LO (LAST 3 MONTHS): $17.74
VOLATILITY (%) (LAST 3 MONTHS): 32%
HI (1 MONTH) $23.32
LO (1 MONTH) $17.74
VOLATILITY (%) (LAST 1 MONTH) 30%
EXCHANGE: New York
MARKET CAPITAL: 2.6 BILLION
DIVIDEND YIELD: NIL
SYMBOL: CAL
_______________________________________________________________________
NATURE OF BUSINESS
- On May 3, 2010 United and Continental Announce Merger of Equals to Create World-
Class Global Airline - Continental Airlines is the world's fifth largest airline. Continental Express and
Continental Connection, has more than 2,500 daily departures throughout the
Americas, Europe and Asia, serving 133 domestic and 135 international destinations.
Official company website: https://www.continental.com/web/en-
US/content/company/investor/default.aspx
:_______________________________________________________________________
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Is the premium on the bond under 20%? 10% 10%
Of the situations being considered, how does 50% 40%
the volatility of this common stock compare
with the other candidates?
Is the market price of the convertible bond 10% 8%
under $1000 (par value)?
Does the yield (%) paid by the bond, less the 5% 5%
common stock yield, at least offset the interest
paid to your broker for margin privileges?
Does the company pay dividends on the stock? 10% 10%
( The investor must pay declared
dividends on short sales).
Is there a record of convertible premiums? 5% 5%
Does the company have assets in excess of the 5% 5%
face value of the bonds?
Is the company in an industry in which there is 5% 5%
a possibility of growth?
TOTAL: 100% 88%
Of the situations being considered, how does 50% 40%
the volatility of this common stock compare
with the other candidates?
Is the market price of the convertible bond 10% 8%
under $1000 (par value)?
Does the yield (%) paid by the bond, less the 5% 5%
common stock yield, at least offset the interest
paid to your broker for margin privileges?
Does the company pay dividends on the stock? 10% 10%
( The investor must pay declared
dividends on short sales).
Is there a record of convertible premiums? 5% 5%
Does the company have assets in excess of the 5% 5%
face value of the bonds?
Is the company in an industry in which there is 5% 5%
a possibility of growth?
TOTAL: 100% 88%
utilizing this intellectual property/concept as their own will constitute an infringement of this
copyright.
All rights are reserved to take any action available to recoup all resulting financial proceeds and
damages therefrom awarded by the appropriate court in breach of this copyright.
DISCLAIMER
This game or website is not an endorsement of any security.
Information contained in this Website and attachments is of a general nature only and is not
intended to constitute advice for any specific situation. The terms of referral bonuses may vary and
are only applicable in the states and provinces for which they are approved. Advice from a suitably
qualified professional should always be sought in relation to any particular matter or circumstance.
copyright.
All rights are reserved to take any action available to recoup all resulting financial proceeds and
damages therefrom awarded by the appropriate court in breach of this copyright.
DISCLAIMER
This game or website is not an endorsement of any security.
Information contained in this Website and attachments is of a general nature only and is not
intended to constitute advice for any specific situation. The terms of referral bonuses may vary and
are only applicable in the states and provinces for which they are approved. Advice from a suitably
qualified professional should always be sought in relation to any particular matter or circumstance.