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#1 'LIVE' Choice for February 2009
(First posted on Mon., Feb. 9, 2009. Based on closing prices as of Fri., Feb. 6,2009.)
Air Tran Holdings 5 1/2% of 2015
NEWS FLASH - Monday, April 22, 2009
Gamers - 176% annualized profit!
Our welcomed Air Tran's turbulence fills two sub goals within hours
Update - Despite the Dow Jones dropping 82 points to-day Air Tran filled two of our sub goal on the
upside.
The reason?
Our discount airline was one of the only major carriers to post a profit last quarter, as a result of, at
least, in part to less overseas flights.
AirTran Airlines made a U-turn for a first-quarter net profit, far exceeding analysts' expectations.
This was assisted by a cut in half of fuel costs. The discount airline optimistically added that it
expects to stay profitable the remaining quarters of this year.
Air Tran Holdings, our #1 'Live' Choice for February, sold short a additional 1302 stocks at $5.99.
This is Sub Goal 2 on the upside.
The reason?
Our discount airline was one of the only major carriers to post a profit last quarter, as a result of, at
least, in part to less overseas flights.
AirTran Airlines made a U-turn for a first-quarter net profit, far exceeding analysts' expectations.
This was assisted by a cut in half of fuel costs. The discount airline optimistically added that it
expects to stay profitable the remaining quarters of this year.
Air Tran Holdings, our #1 'Live' Choice for February, sold short an additional 1302 stocks at $5.99.
This is Sub Goal 2 on the upside.
Within an hour or so, our final long term goal of $6.74 was filled.
These two fills on the upside locks-in an additional profit of $2929.50 per plan for an overall
annualized profit of 176%.
Watch for the next Professor Smarba Weekly Corner for the options we have in this exciting situation.
_____________________________________________________________________________
What's Our Next Step?
Scroll down this page to 'The Profit-Taker Game Plan')
The initial orders are?
Place 2 orders with your broker.
They are:
1.Cancel all previous Air Tran open orders. (We don't want any lingering open orders unexpectedly
filled.)
2. Cover ('buy-in') 1302 shares of Air Tran Holdings at $5.99 (the immediate downside sub goal).
Gamers! Please click here to verify prices.
___________________________________________________________________
In a Nutshell
2009 Orders Filled Profit (Loss)
____________________________________________________
February 9 One half hedge Profit-Taker Strategy set up.
30 bonds at $966.30 each.
3906 common shares sold short at $4.49.
_____________________________________________________________________________
February 27 1302 shares covered at $2.99 $1953
(Realized profit = $1953 per game plan)
_____________________________________________________________________________
March 18 1302 shares sold short at $4.49
(Reloaded)
_____________________________________________________________________________
April 6 1302 shares sold short at $5.24 $976.50
(Locked-in Profit = $976.50 per game plan)
_____________________________________________________________________________
April 22 1302 shares sold short at $5.99 $976.50
(Locked-in Profit = $976.50 per game plan)
_____________________________________________________________________________
April 22 1302 shares sold short at $6.74 $2929.50
(Locked-in Profit = $2929.50 per plan)\
____________________________________________________________________________
TOTAL ANNUALIZED
'LOCKED-IN' PROFIT TO DATE: 176%
(Based on our game investment of $15,000 plus a conservative 50% margin of $15,000)
Margin increased to 50% / Oct. 16, 2009
_____________________________________________________________________________
THE PROFIT-TAKER GAME PLAN
(Air Tran Holdings, common stock)
Common
Stock Price ($)
*6.74 Long-term Goal (Uptrend)
5.99 Sub Goal 2(Uptrend)
5.24 Sub Goal 1 (Uptrend)
4.49 Initial Purchase Price
2.99 Sub Goal 1 (Downtrend)
1.50 Sub Goal 2 (Downtrend)
0 Long-term Goal (Downtrend)
*Underlined blue is price of last 'filled' trade.
Gamers! Please click here for current price.
_________________________________________________________________
Please Note Well:
In the beginning on Feb. 9, 2009...
We bought 30 bonds. CALCULATION: $30,000 ($10,000 of which is margin) divided by $972.50
(price of a convertible bond) = 46 bonds.
Total investment = $29,175
We started plan as a one half hedge. That is, we sold short 130.21 shares per convertible bond, for
a total 3906 shares sold short.
CALCULATION:
30 bonds x 260.417 shares per bond = a total of 7812.51 shares. So a one half hedge is 1/2 of
7812.51 or 3906 shares sold short.
Always sell short 1302 shares on each move to an upside sub goal. That is, part of the 3906
shares represented by the convertible bonds which are not as yet covered by a short sale. Now
divide this number by the 3 upside sub goals which then equals 1302.
Always cover ('buy in') 1302 shares on each move to a downside goal. (That is,
3906 shares sold short divided by the 3 downside sub goals)
_____________________________________________________________________________.
Gamers! Taking into account the -17 negative premium, our long term goal on the upside
is set at 50%.
_____________________________________________________________________________
CONVERTIBLE BOND FACTS:
(Air Tran Holdings 5 1/2 % of 2015)
CONVERTIBLE PRICE : $966.30 or 96.63 %
NUMBER OF SHARES: 260.417 per bond
CONVERSION VALUE : $1169.27 or 116.93 %
PREMIUM : -17 %
TERM CHANGE: None
MATURITY: April 15, 2015
EXCHANGE: OVER-THE-COUNTER
CURRENT YIELD : 5.69 %
ISSUE SIZE: $ 74.75 MILLION
INTEREST PAYMENT DATES: April 15 and October 15
CALL PRICE: No call price
_____________________________________________________________________________
UNDERLYING COMMON STOCK FACTS:
(Air Tran Holdings)
PRICE: $4.49
HI (52 WEEKS): $9.13
LO (52 WEEKS): $1.28
VOLATILITY (%) (52 WEEKS): 174.83 %
HI (LAST 3 MONTHS): $4.76
LO (LAST 3 MONTHS): $2.67
VOLATILITY (%) (LAST 3 MONTHS): 47 %
HI (PREVIOUS 10 DAYS): $4.49
LO (PREVIOUS 10 DAYS): $4.05
VOLATILITY (%) (PREVIOUS 10 DAYS): 9.8 %
EXCHANGE: New York
MARKET CAPITAL: $526.36 Million
DIVIDEND: NIL
SYMBOL: AAI
_____________________________________________________________________________
NATURE OF BUSINESS:
AirTran Holdings operates as an airline holding company. Its primary asset is Air Trans Airways. It
is a scheduled airline service primarily in short-haul markets in the eastern United States, with a
majority of its flights originating and terminating at its hub in Atlanta, Georgia.
Company Official Website: www.airtran.com
___________________________________________________________________
PROFIT-TAKER CHECKLIST
(Air Tran Holdings 5 1/2 % of 2015)
Suggested Actual
100% Ideal Rating
Is the premium on the bond under 20%? 10% 10%
Of the situations being considered, how does
the volatility of this common stock compare
withthe other candidates? 50% 40%
Is the market price of the convertible bond
under $1000 (par value)? 10% 10%
Does the yield (%) paid by the bond, less the
common stock yield, at least offset the interest
paid to your broker for margin privileges? 5% 5%
Does the company pay dividends on the stock? 10% 10%
( The investor must pay declared dividends
on short sales).
Is there a record of convertible premiums? 5% 4%
Does the company have assets in excess of the
face value of the bonds? 5% 5%
Is the company in an industry in which there is
a possibility of growth? 5% 5%
TOTAL: 89%
___________________________________________________________________
RECENT EVENTS POSSIBLY INCREASING VOLATILITY:
AirTran Airways, a subsidiary of AirTran Holdings, Inc.; a Fortune 1000
company, is ranked number one in the 2008 Airline Quality Rating study.
.
(First posted on Mon., Feb. 9, 2009. Based on closing prices as of Fri., Feb. 6,2009.)
Air Tran Holdings 5 1/2% of 2015
NEWS FLASH - Monday, April 22, 2009
Gamers - 176% annualized profit!
Our welcomed Air Tran's turbulence fills two sub goals within hours
Update - Despite the Dow Jones dropping 82 points to-day Air Tran filled two of our sub goal on the
upside.
The reason?
Our discount airline was one of the only major carriers to post a profit last quarter, as a result of, at
least, in part to less overseas flights.
AirTran Airlines made a U-turn for a first-quarter net profit, far exceeding analysts' expectations.
This was assisted by a cut in half of fuel costs. The discount airline optimistically added that it
expects to stay profitable the remaining quarters of this year.
Air Tran Holdings, our #1 'Live' Choice for February, sold short a additional 1302 stocks at $5.99.
This is Sub Goal 2 on the upside.
The reason?
Our discount airline was one of the only major carriers to post a profit last quarter, as a result of, at
least, in part to less overseas flights.
AirTran Airlines made a U-turn for a first-quarter net profit, far exceeding analysts' expectations.
This was assisted by a cut in half of fuel costs. The discount airline optimistically added that it
expects to stay profitable the remaining quarters of this year.
Air Tran Holdings, our #1 'Live' Choice for February, sold short an additional 1302 stocks at $5.99.
This is Sub Goal 2 on the upside.
Within an hour or so, our final long term goal of $6.74 was filled.
These two fills on the upside locks-in an additional profit of $2929.50 per plan for an overall
annualized profit of 176%.
Watch for the next Professor Smarba Weekly Corner for the options we have in this exciting situation.
_____________________________________________________________________________
What's Our Next Step?
Scroll down this page to 'The Profit-Taker Game Plan')
The initial orders are?
Place 2 orders with your broker.
They are:
1.Cancel all previous Air Tran open orders. (We don't want any lingering open orders unexpectedly
filled.)
2. Cover ('buy-in') 1302 shares of Air Tran Holdings at $5.99 (the immediate downside sub goal).
Gamers! Please click here to verify prices.
___________________________________________________________________
In a Nutshell
2009 Orders Filled Profit (Loss)
____________________________________________________
February 9 One half hedge Profit-Taker Strategy set up.
30 bonds at $966.30 each.
3906 common shares sold short at $4.49.
_____________________________________________________________________________
February 27 1302 shares covered at $2.99 $1953
(Realized profit = $1953 per game plan)
_____________________________________________________________________________
March 18 1302 shares sold short at $4.49
(Reloaded)
_____________________________________________________________________________
April 6 1302 shares sold short at $5.24 $976.50
(Locked-in Profit = $976.50 per game plan)
_____________________________________________________________________________
April 22 1302 shares sold short at $5.99 $976.50
(Locked-in Profit = $976.50 per game plan)
_____________________________________________________________________________
April 22 1302 shares sold short at $6.74 $2929.50
(Locked-in Profit = $2929.50 per plan)\
____________________________________________________________________________
TOTAL ANNUALIZED
'LOCKED-IN' PROFIT TO DATE: 176%
(Based on our game investment of $15,000 plus a conservative 50% margin of $15,000)
Margin increased to 50% / Oct. 16, 2009
_____________________________________________________________________________
THE PROFIT-TAKER GAME PLAN
(Air Tran Holdings, common stock)
Common
Stock Price ($)
*6.74 Long-term Goal (Uptrend)
5.99 Sub Goal 2(Uptrend)
5.24 Sub Goal 1 (Uptrend)
4.49 Initial Purchase Price
2.99 Sub Goal 1 (Downtrend)
1.50 Sub Goal 2 (Downtrend)
0 Long-term Goal (Downtrend)
*Underlined blue is price of last 'filled' trade.
Gamers! Please click here for current price.
_________________________________________________________________
Please Note Well:
In the beginning on Feb. 9, 2009...
We bought 30 bonds. CALCULATION: $30,000 ($10,000 of which is margin) divided by $972.50
(price of a convertible bond) = 46 bonds.
Total investment = $29,175
We started plan as a one half hedge. That is, we sold short 130.21 shares per convertible bond, for
a total 3906 shares sold short.
CALCULATION:
30 bonds x 260.417 shares per bond = a total of 7812.51 shares. So a one half hedge is 1/2 of
7812.51 or 3906 shares sold short.
Always sell short 1302 shares on each move to an upside sub goal. That is, part of the 3906
shares represented by the convertible bonds which are not as yet covered by a short sale. Now
divide this number by the 3 upside sub goals which then equals 1302.
Always cover ('buy in') 1302 shares on each move to a downside goal. (That is,
3906 shares sold short divided by the 3 downside sub goals)
_____________________________________________________________________________.
Gamers! Taking into account the -17 negative premium, our long term goal on the upside
is set at 50%.
_____________________________________________________________________________
CONVERTIBLE BOND FACTS:
(Air Tran Holdings 5 1/2 % of 2015)
CONVERTIBLE PRICE : $966.30 or 96.63 %
NUMBER OF SHARES: 260.417 per bond
CONVERSION VALUE : $1169.27 or 116.93 %
PREMIUM : -17 %
TERM CHANGE: None
MATURITY: April 15, 2015
EXCHANGE: OVER-THE-COUNTER
CURRENT YIELD : 5.69 %
ISSUE SIZE: $ 74.75 MILLION
INTEREST PAYMENT DATES: April 15 and October 15
CALL PRICE: No call price
_____________________________________________________________________________
UNDERLYING COMMON STOCK FACTS:
(Air Tran Holdings)
PRICE: $4.49
HI (52 WEEKS): $9.13
LO (52 WEEKS): $1.28
VOLATILITY (%) (52 WEEKS): 174.83 %
HI (LAST 3 MONTHS): $4.76
LO (LAST 3 MONTHS): $2.67
VOLATILITY (%) (LAST 3 MONTHS): 47 %
HI (PREVIOUS 10 DAYS): $4.49
LO (PREVIOUS 10 DAYS): $4.05
VOLATILITY (%) (PREVIOUS 10 DAYS): 9.8 %
EXCHANGE: New York
MARKET CAPITAL: $526.36 Million
DIVIDEND: NIL
SYMBOL: AAI
_____________________________________________________________________________
NATURE OF BUSINESS:
AirTran Holdings operates as an airline holding company. Its primary asset is Air Trans Airways. It
is a scheduled airline service primarily in short-haul markets in the eastern United States, with a
majority of its flights originating and terminating at its hub in Atlanta, Georgia.
Company Official Website: www.airtran.com
___________________________________________________________________
PROFIT-TAKER CHECKLIST
(Air Tran Holdings 5 1/2 % of 2015)
Suggested Actual
100% Ideal Rating
Is the premium on the bond under 20%? 10% 10%
Of the situations being considered, how does
the volatility of this common stock compare
withthe other candidates? 50% 40%
Is the market price of the convertible bond
under $1000 (par value)? 10% 10%
Does the yield (%) paid by the bond, less the
common stock yield, at least offset the interest
paid to your broker for margin privileges? 5% 5%
Does the company pay dividends on the stock? 10% 10%
( The investor must pay declared dividends
on short sales).
Is there a record of convertible premiums? 5% 4%
Does the company have assets in excess of the
face value of the bonds? 5% 5%
Is the company in an industry in which there is
a possibility of growth? 5% 5%
TOTAL: 89%
___________________________________________________________________
RECENT EVENTS POSSIBLY INCREASING VOLATILITY:
AirTran Airways, a subsidiary of AirTran Holdings, Inc.; a Fortune 1000
company, is ranked number one in the 2008 Airline Quality Rating study.
.
| The Greatest Game on Earth or TM "Why should the billionaires have all the fun?" The ‘Game' in a nutshell Professor Smarba supplies ‘the team’. The stock market supplies the action. The experience empowers you. |
NOTIFICATION
The Profit-Taker Copyright 1978, 1980,1986, 2009
All rights reserved
Permission granted for personal and educational use only. .
Any unauthorized fund management and/or investment newsletter advice or advisory service
utilizing this intellectual property/concept as their own will constitute an infringement of this
copyright.
All rights are reserved to take any action available to recoup all resulting financial proceeds and
damages therefrom awarded by the appropriate court in breach of this copyright.
DISCLAIMER
This game or website is not an endorsement of any security.
Information contained in this Website and attachments is of a general nature only and is not
intended to constitute advice for any specific situation. The terms of referral bonuses may vary
and are only applicable in the states and provinces for which they are approved. Advice from a
suitably qualified professional should always be sought in relation to any particular matter or
circumstance.
The Profit-Taker Copyright 1978, 1980,1986, 2009
All rights reserved
Permission granted for personal and educational use only. .
Any unauthorized fund management and/or investment newsletter advice or advisory service
utilizing this intellectual property/concept as their own will constitute an infringement of this
copyright.
All rights are reserved to take any action available to recoup all resulting financial proceeds and
damages therefrom awarded by the appropriate court in breach of this copyright.
DISCLAIMER
This game or website is not an endorsement of any security.
Information contained in this Website and attachments is of a general nature only and is not
intended to constitute advice for any specific situation. The terms of referral bonuses may vary
and are only applicable in the states and provinces for which they are approved. Advice from a
suitably qualified professional should always be sought in relation to any particular matter or
circumstance.
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