The Original Profit-Taker
| Navigation Bar Placeholder |
| The Greatest Game on Earth or TM "Why should the billionaires have all the fun?" The ‘Game' in a nutshell Professor Smarba supplies ‘the product’. The stock market supplies the action. The experience empowers you. _______________________________________________________________________ #1 'LIVE' Choice (December 2008) First posted on Mon., December 1, 2008. Based on closing prices of Fri., November 28, 2008. EVERGREEN SOLAR 4% OF 2013 |
NEWS FLASH - Friday, November 27, 2009
Evergreen scores its fifth goal on the downside
Update -
This is one of our 'Live' example of the one-third Profit-Taker Strategy.
_____________________________________________________________________________
.O.K. Gamers, What's Our Next Step?
(Scroll down this page to 'The Profit-Taker Game Plan')
Cancel all previous orders of Evergreen solar.
Place 2 new orders with your broker. One on the immediate upside. The other on the immediate
downside.
They are:
1. Sell short 1294 shares of Evergreen Solar at 2.75.
2. Cover ('buy-in') 1294 shares of Evergreen Solar at 0.
We're all set now to further ride the fluctuations of the stock market.
Gamers! To verify current price, click here
___________________________________________________________________________
In a Nutshell
2008 Orders Filled Profit (Loss)
____________________________________________________________________________
December 1 One third Profit-Taker Strategy set up
94 bonds at $318.80 each
2588 common shares sold short at 2 3/4
___________________________________________________________________________
2009
___________________________________________________________________________
January 2 1294 shares sold short at 3 1/2 $970.50
(Profit 'locked-in' = $970.50 per game plan)
___________________________________________________________________________
January 14 1294 shares covered at 2 3/4
(Realized profit = $970.50 per game plan)
___________________________________________________________________________
February 19 1294 shares covered at 1 3/8 $1779.25
(Realizes profit = $1779.25 per game plan)
____________________________________________________________________________
June 11 1294 shares sold short at 2 3/4
(Realized profit = $1779.25 per game plan)
________________________________________________________________________________
November 27 1294 shares covered at 1.375 $1779.25
(Profit realized = $1779.25 per game plan)
____________________________________________________________________________
2010
_____________________________________________________
Situation liquidated
May 3 94 bonds sold at $562.50 each
1294 common shares covered at $1.13 each.
_____________________________________________________
TOTAL ANNUALIZED
'LOCKED-IN' PROFIT TO DATE: 70%
(Based on our game investment of $15,000 plus a conservative 50% margin of $15,000)
Margin increased to 50% / Oct. 16,2009
_______________________________________________________________________________
THE PROFIT-TAKER GAME PLAN
(Evergreen Solar Common Stock)
Common
Stock Price ($)
5 1/2 Long-term Goal (Uptrend)
4 7/8 Sub Goal 3 (Uptrend)
4 1/8 Sub Goal 2 (Uptrend)
3 1/2 Sub Goal 1 (Uptrend)
2 3/4 Initial Purchase Price
*1 3/8 Sub Goal 1 (Downtrend)
0 Long-term Goal (Downtrend)
*Underlined blue is price of last 'filled' trade.
Gamers! To verify current price, click here.
__________________________________________________________________
Please Note Well:
In the beginning on Dec.1, 2008...
We bought 94 bonds. CALCULATION: $30,000 ($10,000 of which is margin) divided by $318.80 (price
of a convertible bond) = 94 bonds.
Total investment = $29967.72
We started plan as a one-third hedge. That is, sold short 12.519 shares per convertible bond, for a total
2588 shares sold short.
CALCULATION: 94 bonds x 82.599 shares per bond = 7764 shares. So a one third-hedge is 1/3 of
7764 or 2588 shares sold short.
Always sell short 1294 shares on each move to an upside sub goal. That is, there are now 5176
shares represented by the convertible bonds. not covered as yet by a short sale. Now divide these by
the 4 upside sub goals = 1294.
Always cover ('buy in') 1294 shares on each move to a downside goal.(That is,
2588 shares sold short divided by the 2 downside sub goals).
(That is. 2588 shares sold short divided by the 2 downside sub goals)
_______________________________________________________________________________.
Gamers! Why is our long term goal on the upside set at 60% in the 'Live' #1 Choice (Nov.)...and then
at 100% in this 'Live' #1 Choice (Dec.)?
It's a random decision. However, I've found that a long term goal of 60% of the initial purchase price is
reasonable. It allows for considerable action between our sub goals, while producing substantial
profits after paying all expenses.
In this 'Live' #1 Choice (Dec.), the premium is 40%. So in order to fully protect our profits on the upside,
the premium of 40% was added on to make the long term goal 100% of the initial purchase price.
It does NOT mean the premium will necessarily evaporate as the convertible bonds increase in value.
On the contrary, this extra percentage acts like an 'insurance policy' against loss.
Follow along gamers! This 'Live' #1 Choice (Dec.) was chosen because it has the potential to be truly
informative and entertaining.
___________________________________________________________________________
CONVERTIBLE BOND FACTS:
(Evergreen Solar 4 % of 2013)
CONVERTIBLE PRICE : 31.88% or $318.80
NUMBER OF SHARES: 82.559 per bond
CONVERSION VALUE : 22.70% or $227.04
PREMIUM : 40.02 %
TERM CHANGE: No call price
MATURITY: June, 15, 2027
EXCHANGE: OVER-THE-COUNTER
CURRENT YIELD : 12.55%
ISSUE SIZE: $ 325.0 MILLION
INTEREST PAYMENT DATES: Jan. 15 and June. 15
CALL PRICE: No call price
________________________________________________________________________________
UNDERLYING COMMON STOCK FACTS:
(Evergreen Solar)
PRICE: $2.73
HI (52 WEEKS): $18.85
LO (52 WEEKS): $1.89
VOLATILITY (%) (52 WEEKS): 621.25%
HI (LAST 3 MONTHS): $9.48
LO (LAST 3 MONTHS): $2.04
VOLATILITY (%) (LAST 3 MONTHS): 272.53%
HI (PREVIOUS 10 DAYS): $2.91
LO (PREVIOUS 10 DAYS): $2.04
VOLATILITY (%) (PREVIOUS 10 DAYS): 31.87%
EXCHANGE: NASDAQ
MARKET CAPITAL: $450.11 MILLION
DIVIDEND: NIL
SYMBOL: ESLR
___________________________________________________________________________
NATURE OF BUSINESS:
Evergreen Solar, Inc. develops, manufactures and markets solar power products. The Company’s
revenues are primarily derived from the sale of solar modules.
Its products are sold primarily in the United States, Germany and Korea.
Company Official Website: http://www.evergreensolar.com
_____________________________________________________
PROFIT-TAKER CHECKLIST
(Evergreen Solar 4% of 2013)
Suggested Actual
100% Ideal Rating
Is the premium of the bond under 20%? 10% 2%
Of the situations being considered, how does
the volatility of this common stock compare
with the other candidates? 50% 50%
Is the market price of the convertible bond
under $1000 (par value)? 10% 10%
Does the yield (%) paid by the bond, less the
common stock yield, at least offset the interest
paid to your broker for margin privileges? 5% 5%
Does the company pay dividends on the 10% 10%
stock?
( The investor must pay declared dividends on short sales).
Is there a record of convertible premiums? 5% 2%
Does the company have assets in excess of the
face value of the bonds? 5% 5%
Is the company in an industry in which there is
a possibility of growth? 5% 5%
___________________________________________________________________________
TOTAL: 89%
__________________________________________________________
RECENT EVENTS POSSIBLY INCREASING VOLATILITY:
Evergreen Solar signs two new contracts totaling more than 160 megawatts.
A megawatt is a unit for measuring power that is equivalent to one million watts.
An example of a megawatt would be the amount of energy produced by about ten
automobile engines.
___________________________________________________________________________
NOTIFICATION
The Profit-Taker Copyright 1978, 1980,1986, 2009
All rights reserved
Permission granted for personal and educational use only. .
Any unauthorized fund management and/or investment newsletter or advisory
service advice utilizing this intellectual property/concept as their own will constitute
an infringement of this copyright.
All rights are reserved to take any action available to recoup all resulting financial
proceeds and damages therefrom awarded by the appropriate court in breach of
this copyright.
.
DISCLAIMER
This game or website is not an endorsement of any security.
Information contained in this Website and attachments is of a general nature only
and is not intended to constitute advice for any specific situation. The terms of
referral bonuses may vary and are only applicable in the states and provinces for
which they are approved. Advice from a suitably qualified professional should
always be sought in relation to any particular matter or circumstance.
The Profit-Taker Copyright 1978, 1980,1986, 2009
All rights reserved
Permission granted for personal and educational use only. .
Any unauthorized fund management and/or investment newsletter or advisory
service advice utilizing this intellectual property/concept as their own will constitute
an infringement of this copyright.
All rights are reserved to take any action available to recoup all resulting financial
proceeds and damages therefrom awarded by the appropriate court in breach of
this copyright.
.
DISCLAIMER
This game or website is not an endorsement of any security.
Information contained in this Website and attachments is of a general nature only
and is not intended to constitute advice for any specific situation. The terms of
referral bonuses may vary and are only applicable in the states and provinces for
which they are approved. Advice from a suitably qualified professional should
always be sought in relation to any particular matter or circumstance.
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
wit.her
TM