The Original Profit-Taker
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| or "Why should the billionaires have all the fun?"TM The ‘Game' in a nutshell Professor Smarba supplies ‘the team’. The stock market supplies the action. The experience empowers you. ___________________________________________________________________________ #1 'LIVE' Choice for November 2009 (First posted on Mon., November 9, 2009. Based on closing prices of Fri., November 6, 2009.) UAL Corporation, 6.00% of 2029 'Fly me to the moon Let me sing among the stars' O.K. partner, we scored the final goal with an amazing 389% annualized profit (Scroll down this page to 'The Profit-Taker Game Plan') |
_______________________________________________________________
In a Nutshell
________________________________________________________________________
2009 Orders Filled Profit (Loss)
________________________________________________________________________
November 9
Buy 32 bonds at $946.00 each
Sell short 1842 common shares at $6.96
(Based on our game investment of $15,000 plus an additional conservative 50% margin of $15,000)
______________________________________________________________________________
December 2
614 shares of UAL Corporation sold short at $8.35 $863.46
(profit locked in)
_____________________________________________________________________________
December 4
614 shares sold short at $9.74
(Profit locked in) $1706.92
_____________________________________________________________________________
December 11
614 shares sold short at $11.14
(Profit locked in) $2566.52
___________________________________________________________________
32 bonds sold at $1461.74
3683 shares covered (bought-in) at $11.14.
FINAL SCORE
TOTAL ANNUALIZED
'LOCKED-IN' PROFIT TO DATE: 389%
(Based on our game investment of $15,000 plus a conservative 50% margin of $15,000)
_____________________________________________________________________________
THE PROFIT-TAKER GAME PLAN:
UAL Corporation
Common
Stock Price ($)
*11.14 Long-term Goal (Uptrend)
9.74 Sub Goal 2 (Uptrend)
8.35 Sub Goal 1 (Uptrend)
6.96 Initial Purchase Price
4.64 Sub Goal 1 (Downtrend)
2.32 Sub Goal 2 (Downtrend)
0 Long-term Goal (Downtrend)
*Underlined blue is price of last 'filled' trade.
Gamers! To verify current price, click here.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please Note Well:
In the beginning on November 9, 2009...
We bought 32 bonds. CALCULATION: $30,000 ($15,000 of which is margin)divided by $946.00
(price of a convertible bond) = 32 bonds.
Total investment = $30272.00
We start our plan as a half-hedge. That is, we sell short half the shares represented by our 32
bonds which equals a total of 1842 shares sold short.
CALCULATION: 32 bonds x 115.101 shares per bond = 3683 shares. So a half-hedge is ½ of 3683
or 1842 shares sold short.
Always sell short 614 shares on each move to an upside sub goal. That is, 1842 shares sold short,
divided by the 3 upside sub goals = 614.
Always cover ('buy in') 614 shares on each move to a downside goal. That is, 1842 shares sold
short divided by the 3 downside sub goals = 614.
________________________________________________________________________
CONVERTIBLE BOND FACTS:
UAL Corporation, 6% of 2029
CONVERTIBLE PRICE : 94.60% or $946.00
NUMBER OF SHARES: 115.101 shares per bond
CONVERSION VALUE : 80.11% or $801.10
PREMIUM : 18%
TERM CHANGE: 0
MATURITY: October 15, 2029
EXCHANGE: Over-the-Counter
CURRENT YIELD : 6.34 %
ISSUE SIZE: $ 300 MILLION
INTEREST PAYMENT DATES: Oct. 15 and April 15
CALL PRICE: No call price
CUSIP 902549AJ3
INDUSTRY Air Transport
________________________________________________________________________
UNDERLYING COMMON STOCK FACTS:
UAL Corporation
PRICE: $6.96
HI (52 WEEKS): $15.50
LO (52 WEEKS): $3.07
VOLATILITY (%) (52 WEEKS): 179 %
HI (LAST 3 MONTHS): $9.40
LO (LAST 3 MONTHS): $5.61
VOLATILITY (%) (LAST 3 MONTHS): 67%
HI (PREVIOUS 10 DAYS): $7.03
LO (PREVIOUS 10 DAYS): $6.27
VOLATILITY (%) (PREVIOUS 10 DAYS): 12%
EXCHANGE: NASDAQ
MARKET CAPITAL: 1.16 billion
DIVIDEND: NIL
SYMBOL: UAUA
_______________________________________________________________________
NATURE OF BUSINESS
Company Official Web Site: UAL Corporation
In a Nutshell
________________________________________________________________________
2009 Orders Filled Profit (Loss)
________________________________________________________________________
November 9
Buy 32 bonds at $946.00 each
Sell short 1842 common shares at $6.96
(Based on our game investment of $15,000 plus an additional conservative 50% margin of $15,000)
______________________________________________________________________________
December 2
614 shares of UAL Corporation sold short at $8.35 $863.46
(profit locked in)
_____________________________________________________________________________
December 4
614 shares sold short at $9.74
(Profit locked in) $1706.92
_____________________________________________________________________________
December 11
614 shares sold short at $11.14
(Profit locked in) $2566.52
___________________________________________________________________
32 bonds sold at $1461.74
3683 shares covered (bought-in) at $11.14.
FINAL SCORE
TOTAL ANNUALIZED
'LOCKED-IN' PROFIT TO DATE: 389%
(Based on our game investment of $15,000 plus a conservative 50% margin of $15,000)
_____________________________________________________________________________
THE PROFIT-TAKER GAME PLAN:
UAL Corporation
Common
Stock Price ($)
*11.14 Long-term Goal (Uptrend)
9.74 Sub Goal 2 (Uptrend)
8.35 Sub Goal 1 (Uptrend)
6.96 Initial Purchase Price
4.64 Sub Goal 1 (Downtrend)
2.32 Sub Goal 2 (Downtrend)
0 Long-term Goal (Downtrend)
*Underlined blue is price of last 'filled' trade.
Gamers! To verify current price, click here.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please Note Well:
In the beginning on November 9, 2009...
We bought 32 bonds. CALCULATION: $30,000 ($15,000 of which is margin)divided by $946.00
(price of a convertible bond) = 32 bonds.
Total investment = $30272.00
We start our plan as a half-hedge. That is, we sell short half the shares represented by our 32
bonds which equals a total of 1842 shares sold short.
CALCULATION: 32 bonds x 115.101 shares per bond = 3683 shares. So a half-hedge is ½ of 3683
or 1842 shares sold short.
Always sell short 614 shares on each move to an upside sub goal. That is, 1842 shares sold short,
divided by the 3 upside sub goals = 614.
Always cover ('buy in') 614 shares on each move to a downside goal. That is, 1842 shares sold
short divided by the 3 downside sub goals = 614.
________________________________________________________________________
CONVERTIBLE BOND FACTS:
UAL Corporation, 6% of 2029
CONVERTIBLE PRICE : 94.60% or $946.00
NUMBER OF SHARES: 115.101 shares per bond
CONVERSION VALUE : 80.11% or $801.10
PREMIUM : 18%
TERM CHANGE: 0
MATURITY: October 15, 2029
EXCHANGE: Over-the-Counter
CURRENT YIELD : 6.34 %
ISSUE SIZE: $ 300 MILLION
INTEREST PAYMENT DATES: Oct. 15 and April 15
CALL PRICE: No call price
CUSIP 902549AJ3
INDUSTRY Air Transport
________________________________________________________________________
UNDERLYING COMMON STOCK FACTS:
UAL Corporation
PRICE: $6.96
HI (52 WEEKS): $15.50
LO (52 WEEKS): $3.07
VOLATILITY (%) (52 WEEKS): 179 %
HI (LAST 3 MONTHS): $9.40
LO (LAST 3 MONTHS): $5.61
VOLATILITY (%) (LAST 3 MONTHS): 67%
HI (PREVIOUS 10 DAYS): $7.03
LO (PREVIOUS 10 DAYS): $6.27
VOLATILITY (%) (PREVIOUS 10 DAYS): 12%
EXCHANGE: NASDAQ
MARKET CAPITAL: 1.16 billion
DIVIDEND: NIL
SYMBOL: UAUA
_______________________________________________________________________
NATURE OF BUSINESS
- UAL Corporation (UAL) is a holding company whose principal subsidiary is United Air Lines,
- United transports people and cargo through its Mainline operations,
Company Official Web Site: UAL Corporation
Suggested 100% Ideal Actual Rating
Is the premium on the bond under 20%? 10% 8%
Of the situations being considered, how does 50% 50%
the volatility of this common stock compare
with the other candidates?
Is the market price of the convertible bond 10% 10%
under $1000 (par value)?
Does the yield (%) paid by the bond, less the 5% 5%
common stock yield, at least offset the interest
paid to your broker for margin privileges?
Does the company pay dividends on the stock? 10% 10%
( The investor must pay declared
dividends on short sales).
Is there a record of convertible premiums? 5% 5%
Does the company have assets in excess of the 5% 5%
face value of the bonds?
Is the company in an industry in which there is 5% 5%
a possibility of growth?
TOTAL: 100% 98%
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Any unauthorized fund management and/or investment newsletter advice or advisory service utilizing this
intellectual property/concept as their own will constitute an infringement of this copyright.
All rights are reserved to take any action available to recoup all resulting financial proceeds and damages
therefrom awarded by the appropriate court in breach of this copyright.
DISCLAIMER
This game or website is not an endorsement of any security.
Information contained in this Website and attachments is of a general nature only and is not intended to
constitute advice for any specific situation. The terms of referral bonuses may vary and are only applicable in
the states and provinces for which they are approved. Advice from a suitably qualified professional should
always be sought in relation to any particular matter or circumstance.
Any unauthorized fund management and/or investment newsletter advice or advisory service utilizing this
intellectual property/concept as their own will constitute an infringement of this copyright.
All rights are reserved to take any action available to recoup all resulting financial proceeds and damages
therefrom awarded by the appropriate court in breach of this copyright.
DISCLAIMER
This game or website is not an endorsement of any security.
Information contained in this Website and attachments is of a general nature only and is not intended to
constitute advice for any specific situation. The terms of referral bonuses may vary and are only applicable in
the states and provinces for which they are approved. Advice from a suitably qualified professional should
always be sought in relation to any particular matter or circumstance.